Flávio Bolsonaro gains numerical lead over Lula in second-round projections
AtlasIntel polling data shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 46.4% of first-round votes versus Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 46.2%, reversing a shift seen in August where Lula led.
A new poll released by AtlasIntel on Monday indicates that senator Flávio Bolsonaro currently holds a numerical advantage over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the potential second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The latest data places Flávio at 46.4% of first-round vote intentions, while Lula sits at 46.2%. In a previous survey conducted in August, Lula held the lead with 47.1%, and Flávio trailed at 42.6%. This recent swing in public opinion has been driven almost entirely by gains for Flávio, who added 3.8 percentage points to his support between the two surveys. Conversely, Lula's share dropped by 0.9 points during the same period. Despite this shift, both candidates remain within the survey's one-point margin of error, meaning the lead is statistically insignificant but numerically distinct from August figures. Other contenders did not significantly alter their positions; Augusto Cury and Renan Santos receded to similar levels, while minor candidate shares varied slightly.
