Barclays projects 25 basis point ECB rate hike in December
Barclays forecasts the European Central Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points next month due to inflation risks. Midday trader activity shows a 93.9% probability for this move.
Barclays expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The bank cites persistent inflation risks and rising energy prices as drivers. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices back above $100 a barrel. These factors strengthen arguments for further monetary policy tightening in the euro zone. The European Central Bank increased its key rate by 25 basis points on Thursday. Traders are currently pricing in a 93.9% chance of another quarter-point increase from the ECB, based on LSEG data. Goldman Sachs has also forecast a 25-basis-point hike in December. Barclays stated that inflation may return to the 2% target only by late 2027 according to its latest baseline outlook.
