Fitch Solutions Projects South Sudan GDP Growth of 17.1 Percent in 2026 Following Oil Pipeline Restart
South Sudan's oil production has recovered from 60,000 barrels per day to approximately 150,000 barrels per day after the Petrodar pipeline resumed operations, driving a projected 17.1 percent real GDP growth for 2026 despite ongoing political instability.
South Sudan is moving forward with an estimated 17.1 percent real Gross Domestic Product growth in 2026 according to Fitch Solutions projections. This outlook relies heavily on the resumption of oil exports through the Sudan-based Petrodar pipeline network, which had been shut down for a year. Production levels have climbed from a low of 60,000 barrels per day to roughly 150,000 barrels per day, though this remains below the 350,000 barrels per day recorded at independence in 2011. Fitch Solutions calculated this recovery based on macroeconomic data that follows a catastrophic 24.5 percent GDP contraction in 2024. The increased crude flow is expected to alleviate pressure on the exchange rate and offer relief to a government managing poverty affecting nearly 91 percent of the population. However, analysts note the economic rebound remains conditional on political stability during the upcoming December 22, 2026 elections. Critics warn that unimplemented provisions of the extended Revitalised Agreement threaten the peace process, including the full unification of 83,000 armed forces members. Consequently, the projected growth is viewed by observers as a mirage unless the current political fractures are resolved.
