France's wheat export surplus could vanish within 10 years due to crop decline
French grain producers warn that a continuous drop in harvests will eliminate the nation's wheat export excess by 2036 unless economic and climate pressures ease.
France, currently the European Union's largest wheat producer, faces potential loss of its ability to export surplus within a decade. Agricultural groups stated on September 8 that if declining harvest trends persist due to economic strain and adverse weather, the country may lose six million metric tons of soft wheat production by 2036. This volume equals the entire French wheat surplus projected for this year's non-EU markets. The Ministry of Agriculture reported a record yield of 31.9 million metric tons of soft wheat for the current season, marking a four percent drop compared to 2025. This decline follows a steady reduction since the 2015 harvest, which reached approximately 41 million metric tons. While less impacted by extreme heat and drought than corn, recent production falls continue a downward trajectory driven by warmer, drier conditions reducing yields. Additionally, falling farm incomes have led producers to plant fewer acres in specific regions across southern and central France.
