Fitch retains France at A+ rating despite slowing growth fears ahead of 2027 budget
Fitch Ratings maintains France's sovereign credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook one month before the upcoming 2027 budget submission, capping its downgrade from double-A in September 2025. Analysts anticipate the macroeconomic environment to continue deteriorating as global growth forecasts for 2026 are revised downward.
This Friday marks the moment when Fitch Ratings will deliver its final verdict on France's sovereign debt rating, occurring just one month before the Lecornu government submits its 2027 budget to the National Assembly. The current assessment places France at an A+ rating with a stable outlook, representing only a step below the country's former double-A status lost in September 2025 following political instability and short-lived executive transitions.
Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium, and the eurozone at Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, stated that maintaining the status quo is the most likely scenario, though a negative outlook cannot be ruled out. He emphasized that simply keeping the economy from slipping further would already offer relief to French authorities.
Since March, macroeconomic indicators have shown deterioration driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions. Growth forecasts for 2026 were revised downward, with Natixis CIB anticipating 0.6% expansion compared to earlier projections of 1%. The primary driver cited is the war in the Middle East, which has dampened regional economic momentum since mid-year.
