Fitch Raises Tunisia's Current Account Deficit Forecast to 3.9% of GDP in 2026
A rating agency predicts the Tunisian current account deficit will widen significantly due to energy costs, despite rising export earnings from olive oil.
The Tunisian central bank maintains its long-term sovereign credit rating at 'B-' with a stable outlook. Fitch Ratings noted that the economy benefits from diverse indicators, per capita growth strength, human development metrics, and a skilled labor force. External stability remains strong despite shocks. However, public finance remains fragile facing external shocks, especially volatile commodity prices driven by higher subsidy costs. Limited financial access choices further constrain government options. Despite a 44% increase in olive oil export revenues on a current year basis, Fitch expects the current account deficit to expand to 3.9% of GDP in 2026. This projection contrasts with lower levels in recent periods and stems from rising energy prices causing a larger trade balance shortfall.
