Arizona Election Officials Ban Public Workers from Trading on Prediction Markets Ahead of Midterms
Maricopa County supervisors prohibit employees with ballot access from betting on election odds. Market experts note that prediction markets offer real-time data unlike traditional polls.
Election and county officials in Maricopa, Arizona, banned public workers from trading contracts on political prediction markets. The move targets employees who have direct access to ballots and tabulation results. Thomas Galvin, a supervisor overseeing voter operations, stated the policy prevents insider trading using non-public information. "Obviously, we have no control over prediction markets themselves," Galvin said, adding that restricting employee activity demonstrates transparency awareness. Prediction markets allow participants to forecast candidate victory chances in real time based on breaking news. Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University, argued this live accessibility offers a competitive advantage over traditional polls, noting election odds lag significantly behind market updates. A Kalshi spokesperson affirmed that instant odds complement polling data.
