Thailand upgrades 2026 GDP forecast to 2.1–2.5% citing stronger exports
Thai authorities raised the growth prediction for next year due to robust export performance, even as concerns mount over rising import dependency.
The Thailand Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1–2.5%, up from the previously cited 1.6–2.0%. The committee attributed this increase to stronger-than-expected exports, which the group now projects will expand between 12% and 16%, compared with an earlier estimate of 8–10%. Second-quarter GDP growth reached 1.9% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the prior quarter, while inflation is forecast to range from 2.5% to 3.0%. Officials warned that high imported content restricts the domestic economic spillover from these export and investment gains. The trade imbalance with China widened significantly in the first seven months of 2026. Imports from China increased by 38.49%, whereas Thai exports to China rose by only 9.17%. Electrical machinery and components alone jumped 83% to US$19.37 billion.
